forecast
Effectivenessof your creativity
Creative Effectiveness Calculator estimates how much business power a campaign can create before it goes live. It goes like this: Creative Dividend = Emotion × Distinctiveness × Showmanship × Consistency, then ESOC = Creative Dividend × Media Weight. For exceptional ideas, it adds earned media as a Virality Multiplier, so the final logic becomes: Estimated Effectiveness = Creative Dividend × Paid Media Weight + Earned Media Equivalent, with ROI further adjusted by duration, media mix and brand-performance balance.
Bickerstaff.101 built this model synthesising proven world-class effectiveness frameworks:
- System1 & Effie / Creative Dividend
- Effie / judging and effectiveness scoring logic behind finalist, bronze, silver, gold and Grand levels
- IPA / works of Les Binet & Peter Field on long-term brand growth
- WARC & Cannes Lions / The Effectiveness Code and Creative Commitment
- WARC & Journal of Advertising Research / Advertising across Platforms: Conditions for Multimedia Campaigns
Media budget
How much money is going behind the work.
Creative dividend
The four ingredients that decide whether the work lands or vanishes.
Earned Media
Unlocks only when the work is good enough to get talked about. If this slider is unlocked, pick at least the orange section, as grey section is for comparison purpose only.
Move the slider to see examples from different zones. Baseline cases are for comparison only. Slider minimum should be on 1.5× at least when Free reach is unlocked through "Emotion" on level "Strong" and above.
Campaign details
How long it runs, where it runs, and what kind of work it is.
PREDICTED EFFECT
Why two scores? The first is the classic approach — paid media only. The second shows real potential when earned reach kicks in. To calibrate how much free reach to expect, use "Calibrate from a known case" in station 03 above.